Growth in the immunosuppressant and post-transplant monitoring segments are expected to continue to provide substantial impetus to the market as transplant successes and survival rates climb.

According to a recent technical market research report from BCC Research, Wellesley, Mass., (bccresearch.com) the U.S. market for organ and tissue transplants generated $18.9 billion in 2007. This is expected to increase to $20.9 billion in 2008 and $28.2 billion in 2013, for a compound annual growth rate of 8.3%.

The company divides the market into solid organ and tissue transplants. Of these, the solid organ transplant segment has the larger share. Worth $9.7 billion in 2007, this segment should increase to $10.5 billion in 2008 and $13.8 billion in 2013, for a 5.7% growth.

The tissue transplant segment is growing faster and is expected to eclipse organ transplants by 2013. This segment generated $9.2 billion in 2007 and an estimated $10.4 billion in 2008. This should increase at 6.5% to reach $14.3 billion in 2013. Growth in this sector is driven by skin and skin-replacement products and procedures, as well as by bone grafting procedures.

The primary factor driving the future of transplants is the shortage of organs. Increasing competition for limited supplies will drive better procurement and preservation techniques. Several trends that may enhance the organ supply include donor registration drives, increased organ recovery rates, reduced waste of potential organs, and better organ preservation techniques. The rapid spread of organ transplant services also will increase the competition for both organs and patients.

At the same time, the shortage of transplantable organs has created a window of opportunity for alternatives. In the case of hearts and livers, those alternatives are becoming commercially available. The expanding use of alternatives to pancreas or human-islet-cell transplants soon may be available as well.