A European consortium aims to develop more precise methods for predicting patient-specific risks of osteoporosis and bone fracture. The Osteoporotic Virtual Physiological Human Project (VPHOP) uses finite-element analysis software from developer Ansys Inc, Southpoint, Pa, (ansys.com) to simulate a variety of structural and fluid-flow dynamics of human anatomy based on the project's collection of anatomical, physiological, and pathological data.

Osteoporosis lowers bone mass, making them weak, brittle, and susceptible to fracture. Thirty to 50% of all women and 15 to 30% of men will face an osteoporotic fracture in their lifetimes. The condition results in disability and hospital expenses that cost about $38 billion annually. With an aging population, some predict the cost will double by 2050.

Conventional treatments focus on fracture prevention through a risk assessment based on historical patient data. VPHOP takes a different approach by personalizing risk assessment. The project will develop patient-specific computer models based on conventional diagnostic imaging equipment, then use them in FEA studies to predict daily loading of the skeleton for what could be normal and abnormal activities. Computer models should let clinicians predict risks and actual fracture location for each patient.

“Current fracture-risk assessments oversimplify an extremely complex problem,” says VPHOP coordinator Marco Viceconti. “And they are only 60 to 70% accurate. We can do better.”